[北京大军经济观察研究中心编者按:请有关部门立即将此报告上呈中央政府,这是中国民间智库最重要的政策建议。]

 

中国政府必须高瞻远瞩,必须要有预见

决不能头痛医头,脚疼医脚!

中国政府要紧急启动全国性的难民安置预案

----中国要在全国范围内疏散安置生态难民

北京大军经济观察研究中心主任 仲大军

2008年5月29日

    四川汶川大地震导致大约6万平方公里内的房屋建筑物受到损坏,大约1500万居民撤离家园,加上堰塞湖的危害,目前,从四川汶川到青川这条龙门山地壳断裂带,方圆上万平方公里的地区已经不适应人类居住。对于这一地区疏散撤离出来的几百万生态地质难民,国家已经不能再用就近安置的临时方法,而是要规划全国性的难民安置。

中国要计划从地震灾区至少移出200-300万的人口

    这一次全国性的难民安置的规模,要比三峡水库的移民规模大得多。如果修建三峡水库导致上百万人的异地安置,那么这一次中国政府必须准备好至少200-300万人的全国性移民安排。

    当年三峡水库采取了后退安置、登高安置的办法,事实证明,这种方法对三峡库区的生态环境存在着极大的危害。而这一次四川汶川大地震,如果仍然采取在四川范围内吞吐安置几百万的生态难民,便会对这一生态脆弱地区和人口高度稠密地区带来未来生存的许多潜在威胁。

    我国已经对不适宜人类生存的区域进行了规划,从今天起就要有计划地从这些地区撤离和疏散人口。中国每年流动的农民工数量高达1.5亿,沿海工业地带对劳动力的需求量高达六七千万,因此,向沿海地区移民几百万并不是很难的事情。

中国要在全国各地同时建房,以安置四川的生态难民

    在此我们建议:当四川灾区在原地大量建设临时安置房的同时,政府要在全国各地适当的地方同时建房,紧急疏散地震地区的大量难民!中央政府要马上启动另一套全国安置的方案,迅速设计出一套在全国范围安置四川生态难民的规划。

    全国各地政府要紧急行动起来,在适当的地方为安置四川灾民重建家园,每个省每个市每个地区都要有安置规划。中央要将难民安置预案迅速布置下去,让各地迅速将安置能力和安置计划上报上来!

要预防大量生态难民聚积可能导致的未来隐患!

    要清楚地意识到:大批难民在帐篷里生存,决难度过一个炎热的夏天。即使躲避了地震,也难躲避气候导致的各种疾病。美国环保部门已发现移动房屋存在着大量的污染问题(请见下面的参考文章),不仅如此,帐篷生存还存在着严重的卫生问题和神经问题。因此,各地必须启动紧急安排疏散难民的计划!

    中国必须动员全国的力量来解决四川一地发生的困难!否则,在一个难民大量聚集的地区,在地震后的时期很可能出现一些社会问题、卫生问题和精神问题。时间长了,便可能显示出来。

    特别是这次地震,对四川一省造成的压力巨大,四川省很难用自己的力量来克服地震造成的巨大生态问题。因此,中国要充分利用大国的优势,用全国的力量来化解四川的难题,解除四川震区未来的生存隐患。

中国财政要拿出四五千亿专款来进行难民异地安置

    假如要将大约200万人口进行全国性的安排,假如以每个人需要20万元的异地安置费计算,那么这200万人就需要4000亿元资金。应当看到,这次地震对我国经济造成的损失是巨大的,整个地震后重建和移民重新安置,估计至少需要1万亿至2万亿元的资金!

    这么大的一笔资金,对于中国来说又不算是多么大的一笔开销,只要将为成立中国对外投资公司发放的那1.5万亿元的国债拿过来,投到国内就可以了,只要将楼继伟的中投公司变为国内投资就行了。

    中国本来想拿出外汇到海外去投资,但天灾人祸,让中国政府还是要把这些钱花在中国人民自己身上。这不是老天爷的报应吗?

    总之,中国必须减轻地震灾区的人口压力和生态压力,迅速行动起来,以全国的空间来安置灾区的难民。

 

   参考文章:

美国移动房屋的污染超标问题

    中国现在四川地震灾区大量的安装简易的临时的移动用房,但这些房屋的建材质量是否符合卫生标准,是否有污染超标?需要引起环保部门密切检查和关注。下面发出美国的几篇文章,以引起中国的警惕。目前,美国有大量的飓风难民仍然居住在移动拖车房屋里,环保部门已发现这种拖车房屋存在着危险气体严重超标问题,并严重影响到居民的身体健康。

 

发件人:"Flynn" <yilu@sse.com.cn> 收件人: "Flynn" <yilu@sse.com.cn> 抄送:发送时间:2008-05-29 09:27:35 +0800 优先级:普通标题:转发: 美联社 联邦救急署企图掩盖活动房屋的5倍甚至40倍污染超标

联邦救急署企图掩盖活动房屋的5倍甚至40倍污染超标

美联社

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl021408jbfumes.bf96b205.html

“Last May, FEMA officials dismissed findings by environmentalists that the trailers 拖车移动房 posed serious health risks. They said the trailers conformed to industry standards.

By August, about 1,000 families in Louisiana asked FEMA to move them to other quarters. In November, lawyers for a group of hurricane victims 飓风受害者 asked a federal judge to order FEMA to test for hazardous fumes 危险的气体”.

"Fumes from 519 trailer and mobile homes in Louisiana and Mississippi were -- on average -- about five times what people are exposed to in most modern homes, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In some trailers, the levels were nearly 40 times customary exposure levels, raising fears that residents could contract respiratory problems".

 

Tests find toxic levels of formaldehyde fumes in FEMA trailers

11:24 AM CST on Thursday, February 14, 2008

Mike Stobbe / Associated Press

ATLANTA -- U.S. health officials are urging that Gulf Coast hurricane victims be moved out of their government-issued trailers as quickly as possible after tests found toxic levels of formaldehyde fumes.

Fumes from 519 trailer and mobile homes in Louisiana and Mississippi were -- on average -- about five times what people are exposed to in most modern homes, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In some trailers, the levels were nearly 40 times customary exposure levels, raising fears that residents could contract respiratory problems.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency -- which supplied the trailers -- should move people out quickly, with priority given to families with children, elderly people or anyone with asthma or other chronic conditions, said Mike McGeehin, director of a CDC division that focuses on environmental hazards.

"We do not want people exposed to this for very much longer," McGeehin said.

In New Orleans, Jim Herring, 63, who only recently moved back into his partially renovated house in the badly flooded Lakeview neighborhood, said he wasn't surprised about the finding.

"The workmanship is pathetic," said Herring, a retiree who worked for 25 years in a chemical plant.

Herrings and his wife Susan recently decided to move back into their partly rebuilt home rather than stay in the trailer, which they received in April 2007. They have been sleeping on air matresses.

Both Herrings are smokers, though Jim said he did not have a cough until they moved into the trailer and began experiencing morning coughing spells.

"Let's face it, these things were not meant to be lived in for a year," Jim Herring said.

While there are no federal safety standard for formaldehyde fumes in homes, the levels found in the trailers are high enough to cause burning eyes and breathing problems for people who have asthma or sensitivity to air pollutants, said McGeehin.

CDC officials said the study did not prove people became sick from the fumes, but merely took a snapshot reading of fume levels. Only formaldehyde was tested, they added.

FEMA provided about 120,000 travel trailers to victims of the 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In 2006, some occupants began reporting headaches and nosebleeds.

The complaints were linked to formaldehyde, a colorless gas with a pungent smell used in the production of plywood and resins.

Commonly used in manufactured homes, formaldehyde can cause respiratory problems and has been classified as a carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer and as a probable carcinogen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Last May, FEMA officials dismissed findings by environmentalists that the trailers posed serious health risks. They said the trailers conformed to industry standards.

By August, about 1,000 families in Louisiana asked FEMA to move them to other quarters. In November, lawyers for a group of hurricane victims asked a federal judge to order FEMA to test for hazardous fumes.

The CDC, working with FEMA, hired a contractor. The firm -- Bureau Veritas North America -- tested air samples from 358 travel trailers, 82 park model and 79 mobile homes.

Analysis of the samples, taken from Dec. 21 through Jan. 23, came back last week, McGeehin said.

They found average levels of 77 parts formaldehyde per billion parts of air, significantly higher than the 10 to 17 parts per billion concentration seen in newer homes. Levels were as high as 590 parts per billion.

The highest concentrations were in travel trailers, which are smaller and more poorly ventilated, McGeehin said.

Indoor air temperature was a significant factor in raising formaldehyde levels, independent of trailer make or model, CDC officials said. McGeehin said that's why the CDC would like residents out before summer.

A broader-based children's health study is also in the works, McGeehin said.

Last week, congressional Democrats accused FEMA of manipulating scientific research in order to play down the danger posed by formaldehyde in the trailers.

In its initial round of testing, FEMA took samples from unoccupied trailers that had been aired out for days and compared them with federal standards for short-term exposure, according to the lawmakers.

Legislators also said the CDC ignored research from -- and then demoted -- one of its own experts, who concluded any level of exposure to formaldehyde may pose a cancer risk. A CDC spokesman has denied the allegations.

 

 

发件人:"Flynn" <yilu@sse.com.cn> 收件人: "Flynn" <yilu@sse.com.cn> 抄送:发送时间:2008-05-29 09:27:07 +0800 优先级:普通标题:转发: 美联社今天最新报道:本周日前必须从污染活动房屋搬出

美联社今天最新报道:本周日前必须从污染活动房屋搬出

    美联社今天最新报道:本周日前必须从污染活动房屋搬出,但很多人将无家可归。

"We have hundreds of people who have the potential for being homeless because they don't have the means for sustainable housing" .

Housing crisis looms for Katrina victims

FEMA wants remaining trailer parks in New Orleans closed by the weekend

FEMA trailer parks like this one in Port Sulphur, La., are set to close this weekend, prompting fears that people will be forced into residences they can't afford or will be left homeless.

照片



BAKER, Louisiana - The U.S. government has plenty of reasons to move hundreds of families out of emergency trailers they have occupied since Hurricane Katrina: the start of a new hurricane season, concerns about toxic fumes and the need for residents to find permanent homes.

But some worry they will have nowhere to go once they lose their subsidized housing.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency wants to close its last six trailer parks by Sunday, the first day of hurricane season. Those parks, all in Louisiana, are all that remain of the 111 the agency built and operated in the state after the August 2005 hurricane.

It is not clear, however, whether the agency will meet its goal.

While most storm victims are eager to move out of cramped travel trailers and mobile homes, others worry about where they will end up because they are only being promised one extra month of government-subsidized shelter. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita depleted the supply of affordable housing in the Gulf Coast, and rents are soaring.

"We have hundreds of people who have the potential for being homeless because they don't have the means for sustainable housing," Sister Judith Brun said.

The Roman Catholic nun has been helping to find new homes for residents of the Renaissance Village trailer park in Baker, a small town just north of Baton Rouge.

Meeting deadline

Although FEMA is pushing hard to reach its Sunday deadline, it says it will not evict anyone who is not out of the parks by then.


A FEMA news release Wednesday said 436 households were still occupying trailers at the six Louisiana group sites, including 85 at Renaissance Village, and estimated that 383 of them will still be in place on Sunday.

Despite that estimate, FEMA spokesman Andrew Thomas in New Orleans insisted Wednesday: "Our goal remains the same."

"We're trying to get them out as quickly as we can," Thomas said.

The agency said in addition to the families in the six FEMA sites, several thousand other families are still in trailers on private sites. The last FEMA-managed trailer park in Mississippi closed this month, but eight group sites that the agency does not run remain open in that state.

Toxic concerns

Though the new hurricane season looms, much of the urgency for moving the familes stems from worries about toxicity.

Tests by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found potentially hazardous levels of formaldehyde in hundreds of FEMA trailers and mobile homes. The preservative, commonly found in construction materials, can cause breathing problems and is classified as a carcinogen.

Alton Love has shared a trailer at Renaissance Village with his 9-year-old daughter since January 2007. He lost his job as a truck driver several months ago, and finding new employment is not easy because his only means of transportation are a bicycle and a bus that only comes by every few hours.

FEMA found an apartment in Baton Rouge for Love and his daughter, who lived at a New Orleans housing project before Katrina. But after the government pays for the first month, Love has to pay the rent.

Most families moving out are eligible for federally subsidized housing assistance until March 2009. Love is one of those who are eligible for only one more month because they can't prove where they were living when Katrina and Rita slammed into the coast.

"I'm carless, jobless and soon to be homeless," he said. "Things are going to work out, though."

'People need to move on'

Jim Stark, FEMA's acting Gulf recovery director, said the agency is trying to place people in apartments they can afford once subsidies end.

"It's a little beyond what FEMA would normally do," he said. "Our mission is for emergency housing. Unfortunately, the emergency housing period for New Orleans and southeast Louisiana stretched a lot longer than anyone expected."

Closing trailer parks like Renaissance Village "needs to happen," said Mario Sammartino, disaster response supervisor for Catholic Charities in Baton Rouge. He oversees 16 case managers helping trailer occupants find affordable housing.

"People need to move on," Sammartino said. "I also know that not everyone is going to reach that normality, and that's what we're concerned about."

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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